Line of Duty Mafia game - NIGHT 2

[Ragian]

To be honest, I'm not good with numbers (because I don't really care too much). I don't know what's the best play according to maths. Usually, I rely on scumtell, but three of the four most scummy playing people in here are confirmed townies to an extent that it doesn't make sense to question it D2. That has me thrown a bit. Maybe you're right. Maybe we need to lynch from the silent players that are here. However, I'd list KingM as silent D2, too.

[SoN!c]

Unvote DJfireside

Thanks for answering questions

Vote Kongming

For being way too silent.

Not 1 post the entire D2??

Scum coasting because they enjoyed watching the town vs town mayhem..It's Kong's strategic brain saying "never interrupt the enemy when they are making big mistakes"

[Ragian]

While I agree that not posting at all is poor, I don't think that not posting at all equals scum. I'd think that a scumster watching town eat itself (if that is indeed the case) would make sure to post enough as to not warrant too much scrutiny, but not enough to steer town away from self-imploding and not be caught up in the mess that town is creating for itself. I'd say that Strike fits that bill, but I have nothing else on Strike, so that feels like guessing too.

That said, not posting at all won't fly. Maybe we need a prod, LC?

[SoN!c]

Ok let me explain my reasoning why i wanted extra info.

Because right now we already got that extra info in and im way more happy now on a Kingm lynch then i was before: Because both DJfireside and Hjelp confirmed they are not vanilla too (DJFireside confirmed with a PR claim of sorts, and Hjelp confirmed it if you can read between the lines).

This makes the case on Kingm damning. Only "New Devante" (riskmaster) leaves the door open by saying : "a vanilla claim by itself is not enough".. (New Devante is not showing his cards.)

We also have the big mechanical clue from the mod: he lowers the vote count from 8 to 7 for a lynch D2 (with Cofari and Cod awol). Why would the mod need to lower the votecount if both of them are scum? It does tilt the odds that at least one (or most likely both) of those 2 slots lean town, which in turn shrinks the possible scum pool..

Yes mod said he subbed Devante in for Riskmaster by "heads or tails" but let's be frank, the mod can't say he switched a scum in now can he?

So the scum pool looks to be Kingm + New Devante + ? + ?

Right now the best option for scum is to stay silent as hell and cloak under the "COD COFARI MIA disguise". Strategically that's the best option scum has for the rest of D2. Im pretty sure Kong is gonna stay "looking MIA" until N2.

And Strike is too. I can believe one of them "forgot about this game" but i can't believe both did..

So why not the following "scum quartet": Kingm + New Devante (riskmaster) + Kong + Strike?

[SoN!c]

New Devante (Riskmaster sub) is the big red flag for me: it looked like he was ready to bus Kingm, then he used my opening (Kingm defense) to steer the obvious lynch very gentle away. Almost unnoticed. If New Devante is scum (together with Kingm) this would make sense.

It also explain's the D1 very early vote "Let"s all vote Riskmaster"' by Kingm (a very early D1 self distancing move).

So both DJfireside and Hjelp confirming their non-vanilla status (via their claims and how they've held up) makes Kingm's unprovoked "I'm vanilla town" play look worse beyond defence. Nobody buys plain vanilla from him at this point anymore; That alone doesn't seal it, but it does make his D1 chaos (panic melt-down) and vote-hopping feel like classic scum deflection rather than just "low energy Kingm / just being funny."

The mod lowering the lynch threshold from 8 to 7 because Cofari and Cod are ghosts is also a mechanical clue worth noting. Again alone it means nothing but it ties New Devante a bit more to the scummy side if he balances between town or scum..

And the timing and "New Devante's" actions line up suspiciously :

He looked ready to bus Kingm at one point.
Then pivoted gently away once i opened the door (classic partner protection/steering).
Kingm's super-early D1 "let's all vote Riskmaster" (then immediate backpedal) screams pre-planned distancing if they were paired (and New Devante is Riskmaster).

Then Kong + Strike: Scum's smartest play right now is exactly what we're seeing — stay low, let the ghosts take the heat knowing we won't lynch ghosts, let town fight town, keep staying low, and hope we no-lynch or misfire..

I guess there is only one way to find out all of this and that is to lynch Kingm today?

What do others think — especially @Kong, @Strike, @New Devante? Any defense, or are we just waiting for deadline? (8th of April)

[Devante]

I am town once again and don't personally think all the "cleared" are actually cleared. This seems to be a show where cleared detectives turn out to be actual scum so think there's been one too many trackers etc already. But am not defending King either was trying to catch up and get an actual sense of do we have anything to go by or just down rabbit holes which is what it seemed. But I agree a lynch is needed D2 regardless so for now with not much else to go on I'm fine with a vote on King

VOTE KINGM

[SoN!c]

That is Kingm on L-1 i believe (only 7 votes needed)

Kingm wagon: Annieh, Traf, Hjelp, Charle, Homer, Devante

[homer_jay]

We also have the big mechanical clue from the mod: he lowers the vote count from 8 to 7 for a lynch D2 (with Cofari and Cod awol). Why would the mod need to lower the votecount if both of them are scum? It does tilt the odds that at least one (or most likely both) of those 2 slots lean town, which in turn shrinks the possible scum pool..

this is a really good point. so looking back at my math before, if we eliminate them from the pool of possible scum, it leaves us with 5 names that we aren't confident about (i'm not ready to move DJfireside off the list just yet based off one post, but will move him to the bottom of the list). that makes our odds really good. it's also convenient that king is at L-1 and none of those 5 have voted for him. if he was town, you'd think at least one take the time to vote

[SoN!c]

Well the hammer could drop any moment now so a quick list on the "Aggressive Scum Hunt Ranking List":

TOP 4 MAFIA LINE-UP:

1) Kingm — Unprovoked vanilla claim (as only one it seems) + silent on D2 while at L-1 is textbook scum panic / throwing the towel. In relation with the D1 vote-hopping and chaos make this the clearest target.

2) Strike — Zero content on D2. Pure coasting. And it's Strike Wolf. In aggressive scum-hunting, this is priority #2 after the main wagon.

3) Kong — Same silent/coasting profile as Strike. Letting town fight while staying invisible = classic mafia. Kong's strategic brain is very, very bad for town if mafia. Top 3 target for town anyday.

4) New Devante — Steering votes?, gentle pivots, no hard denial to these accusations, and possible bussing/protection of Kingm. Sub timing feels off. The most obvious "connecting" scum link to a scum Kingm because the substitution role.

REST :

5) Cofari — AWOL. Don’t fully cleared just yet because of the mod adjustment. But Mod killed soon..

6) Cod — Same as Cofari. Mod clue says 'more town chance then scums'

7) DJfireside — PR/non-vanilla claim feels like a desperate fake to gain credit. Not buying it fully. First "sub" to the mafia team if one of the current scum quartet flips town.

Hjelp — Non-vanilla for sure due to a"reading between the lines claim" and jumped on the Kingm wagon at exactly the right moment. Timing suspicious? No. But he played a previous game awesome (considering he was noob then). Imagine what he could do now with a bit more experience??

9) Charle — Voted the main wagon but low overall contribution. Opportunistic feel. Claim says "confirmed town" however: I wish he posted more fun stuff to take away the sus that is still there after his play. Anyway: Our town hero 1 (Ted Hastings)

10) Traf — "Heavy ....----TUUUUUUUT------ TUUUUUT....TUUUUUT...without a strong independent read and mostly radio silence play". Superscummy behavior but Homer (who cleared him as cop- at his own cover as cost!) called his play best. So no more comments on that. Town hero 2 (Kate Fleming).

11) Annieh — Very active on the Kingm wagon. Aggressive view: could be the Agatha Christie "totaly unexpected scum" - never saw that one coming - pushing the lynch to look townie. But overall town feel. Still a woman with brains and guts. We are just suckers compared to that emotional social brain power.

12) homer_jay — Controlling the mechanical narrative a bit too cleanly. Very veteran style. Tends to over-analyse but without no counterclaim he is our Town hero N° 3 AND our cop. Our most important town asset. i hope you get your target right tonight.

13) Ragian — Honest emotion. Some very good town activity but not enough to be fully cleared in paranoid mode. Sorry Rag. Paranoid mode stays paranoid mode.

14) SoN!c — mod confirmed thanks to Charle's letter.


This ranking is deliberately paranoid and aggressive. On the edge. Where we need to be.

[Djfireside]

(i'm not ready to move DJfireside off the list just yet based off one post, but will move him to the bottom of the list)

Woohoo Im a bottom .

Not posting is not necessarily scum I agree with Ragian but when prodded and mentioned and then not posting... fill in the blank of your favorite scummy term or AFK excuse.

Im good with dropping the hammer on King as I noted before. I noted Sonic wanted to hear others opinions of those missing but at this point I dont forsee anything really coming out that would sway this. Since they just dropped to L1 ill give the courtesy time to say anything of value like a last words but will finish this off.

[SoN!c]

Okay. I agree with that. Also Kingm is very active in other threads. Hammer time

[homer_jay]

12) homer_jay — Tends to over-analyse

have you been talking to my wife?

[SoN!c]

12) homer_jay — Tends to over-analyse

have you been talking to my wife?

Im just deep analysing.

And on this deep analyse mode i say DJfireside is not the biggest fish right now (Kingm and the other ones listed top 3 are hotter), but he is far from cleared. The combination of early buddying accusations + a soft/vague PR claim + jother reasons makes him a very solid secondary target if Kingm or any of the "sus four" flips Town.


We should Ask him straight-up for the exact role/character he claims to be and what he did N1. Because: That will force him to commit or slip..

However not my call because if DJfireside doesn't want to answer any of those questions the only thing he needs to do is hammer..

[annieh]

I think we've done about as much detective work as we can and I'm happy to see the town come together. This could have gone no vote and we avoided that.

Not much more to say from me, I think Dev and Sonic are right and we should scrutinize everyone and consider things like evidence tampering could be in play.

I agree with and endorse Sonic's player breakdown. We're in for a crazy night and things will likely look a lot different in the morning.

Not getting a vote in with a time extension is a whole lot of failing in public. Too many people asleep at the wheel. No more excuses!

Stay safe out there tonight and don't answer phone calls from unknown numbers! It's always blackmailers!

[SoN!c]

I think we've done about as much detective work as we can and I'm happy to see the town come together. This could have gone no vote and we avoided that.

Not much more to say from me, I think Dev and Sonic are right and we should scrutinize everyone and consider things like evidence tampering could be in play.

I agree with and endorse Sonic's player breakdown. We're in for a crazy night and things will likely look a lot different in the morning.

Not getting a vote in with a time extension is a whole lot of failing in public. Too many people asleep at the wheel. No more excuses!

Stay safe out there tonight and don't answer phone calls from unknown numbers! It's always blackmailers!

I could not agree more. I gave it my all. (and sorry if that seemed toooo much at times - when i say "i'll play" then "i"ll play").

Because: i believe very strongly in the idea that if you choose to play a game you need too commit until the finish

The movie Young Gungs II and the story in it about the "3 chinaman playing fantam" says it best : Once you decide to play the game then finish the game no matter what;




I need to say: i am very happy with the play of all who i considered to be town. If they are not who they claim to be and are deceitful : i still say: well played guys Hell of a game and big fun playing it that way. Respect!


MVP / MCR based on D1 and D2 : Me, Annieh or Ragian

I think i was producing the most content and i was also the most active: Most posts, deepest analysis, and driving the scum hunting

so i have another list (most active list )

1 SoN!c :Very High (leader) : Most posts, deepest analysis, drives the scum hunting

2 : Annieh: Very Active on Kingm wagon, but bit lighter (second) contribution on most posts then me : thank god!

3 : Ragian : Flip position with Homer and Annieh, Good scum-tells discussion, very active - very good play on overall score wether town or scum - for sure "the benchmark" for everybody who plays maffia -- just copy Ragian"'s style and your golden (yes i need to do that more - im learnig!)

4 : homer_jay : High activity overall, Strong mechanical reads, good vote count analysis

5: Hjelp: good read and good comments wether scum or town - scary

6: DJfireside (unexpected) but still here he is: Medium analysis on D2 (voted Traf, questioned claims) - good activity overall while staying silent as possible

7 : Devante I :

8: Devante II (riskmaster): Medium-Low Votes and some steering comments but Devante 1 and Devante 2 counted as one..;However, they are not the same scum/town role.. Overall Good performance and good activity: always happy with Devante his post level on mafia games

9 : Charle : low activity opportunistic read - this is not his best game if he flips town

10 : Traf : Low commitment, very weak reads on scum, "radio silence" on real content

11 : Kingm : Total Silence on D2, at L-1?

12 : : Kong : Extremely Low activity Almost zero posts on D2, pure coasting

13 : Strike : Dissapointing, Extremely Low / alomst Zero content on D2

14 : Cofari : None (AWOL)Ghost

15 : Cod ; None (AWOL)Ghost



Highest content riders (towny vibe usually): SoN!c > Ragian > Annieh
Lowest content riders (biggest red flags right now): Strike, Kong, Kingm and Traf based on content (while Trag is cleared)

I hope the doc protects me tonight

Feel safe and sleep with a cop tonight

Vote Kingm

[SoN!c]

Also based on the current activity level Kingm is showing in other threads (the current situation) this would indicate a total town betrayal in such a way we could never take his claimed situation serious again.

[Ragian]

I'm out till tomorrow (we have a gig, so I'm most likely too drunk to participate), but I'll hammer KingM if he doesn't show up. However, I'd still ask LC to prod Kong.

[Loose Canon]

Kingm has 7 votes -Annie,Traf,,Help, HomerJay, Charle, Devante, Sonic - THATS A LYNCH

Kingm - AKA PC Karen White - Vanilla Town has been lynched

Also Cofari - AKA Detective Sergeant Chris Lomax - Vanilla Town has been modkilled

Not a good day for getting rid of the bad apples - but a golden delicious day for the OCG

It is now Night 2 - 72 hours to send me any night actions by Private Messages

No more posting please